Wednesday 9 September 2009

The Doors of Perception

Hard though it is to believe, the UK's two main parties are on the verge of civil war. Conservative right is attacking Conservative left and Labour left is attacking Labour right. And it is all over which idiot, or bunch of idiots, in either party, left the doors of perception too wide open because they wanted a bit of 'wiggle room'. So what is at stake?

- On the Labour front: Recovery - When is a recovery not a recovery? When is the word recovery premature? Is 'recovery' going to become the word most associated with Labour in the run up to the next election?
- On the Conservative front: Spending - How much should a future Conservative government cut public services? Is Mr Osborne faint hearted in his approach? Does he need to slash and burn more? Will spending cuts be associated with the Conservatives in the run up to the next election?

For both parties, perception is more than ever really the problem (rather than the solution). Everyone wants to stand in the middle of the road nowadays, despite the old Nye Bevan aphorism that such people tend to get run over. But ever since New Labour moved everyone closer to the centre ground in the late 90s, the political parties have been too terrified to move away, just in case the sidewalk holds even greater horrors. At least in the middle of the road, you can keep your enemies close and never suffer such accusations as: "Look, he/she is on the wrong side of the road." At least no-one need appear to be like the proverbial 'chicken', always thinking about crossing to the other side... And if everyone is doing political cross dressing nowadays then no-one can point at the other guy and laugh.

Problem is that the natives, and the party activists are getting restless. They are starting to realise that even though the next election should be one of the 'big ones', with a hell of a lot at stake, no-one is really sure what actually is at stake. Gordon will claim 'recovery' is here and carry on as before, and Conservatives will insist on spending cuts, but not on the scale that some in the party, and the city and even the civil service would expect.

Politics is about nothing else if it is not about massaging public perception. We know that, "You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." At some point the truth... the natives... the party activists will catch up and say that something is not quite right? Surely?

Although who knows? Gordon Brown might well play a blinder and call a general election at the beginning of the Conservative Party Conference this autumn. It would certainly wrong foot the opposition. Maybe that is the best the Gordon can hope to do right now.

As George Dubya Bush put it: "You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on."

27 comments:

  1. Rambling Macdonald9 September 2009 at 11:37

    Every single time Labour have been in power since the 1920s they have screwed up the economy - right to the the present day

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  2. If Labour or anyone else for that matter thinks that the recession was only about Sub Prime Mortgages, then they must be bonkers. Two other types of Mortgages, Option Arms and ALTAs, low-start interest rate, which were supposed to be "quality mortages" are now resetting to higher rates. And the smart money says that both those types of mortages are going to give us a 2nd recession far worse than the sub-prime - and the critical start point is now on us.

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  3. You also have to add to that the massive inflationary/recessionary effects of Governments printing billions to throw at the finance companies and banks. Put that in your pipe Gordon.

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  4. Cameron et al just want to get into power. The recent speech regarding cutting spending and salary cuts is a reasonable thing to say when you are opposition. But do they not realise that people must see what they're up to? With all the money he has he can quite easily call for salary cuts.

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  5. I want to know what Cameron's going to do about fixing the economy, and right now, they don't seem to want to say much about that.

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  6. If people really think that the recovery is over just look at what gold is doing and soon to be followed by silver. When this happens people run for cover getting rid of currencies, in particular USDollars and start buying something that they believe will weather the storm and hold value.

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  7. Isn't it funny how people in this country love only bad news and love moaning all the time?
    Offer them something positive and they will say is a lie

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  8. Disgruntled Homeowner9 September 2009 at 12:03

    The recession has hardly even begun. Labour has simply delayed it by taking out more loans on top of the loans which caused the slump, by playing with figures and printing money. This has to be paid for by increased taxes and reduced public spending and that means job-losses in the state sector and possibly more house repossessions which will affect house prices

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  9. I wonder why Cameron is not talking about cutting ministerial appointments. Huge amounts of money would be saved by not having to cover lifelong ministerial pension commitments and also stem the tide of new government initiatives from junior ministers trying to justify their salaries.

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  10. We need substantially to reduce the number of ministers and in particular junior ministers, that is definitely true. However this is a powerful form of patronage and will not be easy for a leader to give up, even though each Minister creates a need for staff

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  11. Both parties are as shit as eachother.
    Same lies, same fiddling...

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  12. Osborne / Cameron have nowhere near given the kind of savings that will make any difference. The numbers yesterday that were released were a 'drop in the ocean'.

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  13. Tell those struggling to find a job that the recesssion is over. Tell that to those who's savings have been wiped out.

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  14. How nice it would be if we could actually believe what the Government tells us, but after 12 years of duoble dealing how can we ? Even the staunchest NuLabour supporter must realise just how much we have been deceived

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  15. Anyone ever heard of a dead cat Bounce?

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  16. Anyone heard of a double dip?

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  17. Darling and Broon make up a double dipshit

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  18. How many comments here are from individuals who have no concept of economics? As soon as the economy returns to growth, which it is doing, a recession is defined as over. No opinions involved, just simple proof, backed up by evidence from economic figures.

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  19. I would personally like to know whether there is currently behind the scenes conflict between Osborne and Boris over the bonus issue. There ought to be.

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  20. Voters in the UK are big enough to accept that deep and sometimes painful reductions in spending are vital to economic stability

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  21. Dear 'city trader' what you are talking about is just perception as well. The 'good times' are as we saw over the past few years generally illusory

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  22. Illusory?
    So what will you believe? Clearly the standard economic indicators should be discounted????

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  23. So much for standard indicators. Just like lies and damned lies, they have been tweaked for years.
    Why was not house price inflation included in the key inflation indicator? Had is been, this housing mess might not have been as severe.
    Government has ways of massaging the (headline) indicators.

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  24. What a great analysis of the current Westminster dynamics and LOVE the idea of cross dressing politicians

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  25. Thanks... not saying that they all cross dress of course...

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  26. You guys have no idea what a boom really is.

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  27. Why does everyone assume that the Conservatives are somewhere close to the centre ground?

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